主题：The Revival of Target Zone Modeling
主讲人：北京师范大学一带一路学院Pompeo Della Posta教授
Pompeo Della Posta，意大利欧洲大学学院经济学博士，英国华威大学经济学硕士，意大利锡耶纳大学经济学学士。曾为斯坦福大学访问学者，普林斯顿大学访问学者。曾任意大利比萨大学副教授，国际贸易与金融协会2019年候任主席。现任北京师范大学一带一路学院教授，国际贸易与金融协会理事会理事，在线跨学科期刊《科学与和平》（Scienza a Pace）主任。主要研究领域包括发展金融学、国际货币经济学、发展经济学等。
Krugman’s ‘honeymoon’ seminal paper showed in 1991 the stabilizing properties of the adoption of fluctuation bands and gave rise to the literature on target zones. Subsequent contributions, however, showed that, in the absence of adequate reserves, a destabilizing ‘divorce’ would lead to speculative attacks. The euro area public debt crisis revived that literature, producing a second generation of target zone modeling, based on the idea that the sustainability of public debt implies the adoption of an interest rate target. Its lack of credibility (if the central bank or the government does not guarantee repayment of the debt) explains the non-linearity of the relationship between interest rates and public debt that was observed during the euro area crisis. The model also makes it possible to understand why some non-euro area countries have not been subject to speculative attacks despite the fact that their public debt-to-GDP ratios were as high as those of countries in crisis, but guaranteed by the 'virtual' reserves of their national central banks. Finally, a third generation of target zone modeling is represented by its application to the current crisis of economic globalization and has been extended to merge it with heterogeneous agents modeling.